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A massive Russian strike on Oct. 3 destroyed about 60% of Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure, posing one of the most serious challenges yet to the country’s energy system ahead of the winter season. Global energy markets expert Tatiana Mitrova said the attack dealt a severe blow that Ukraine will only be able to partially offset through increased gas imports.
“The loss of about 60% of Ukraine’s gas production is an extremely serious blow to the country’s energy system ahead of winter,” Mitrova told The Insider. “According to Bloomberg and S&P Global Commodity Insights, gas injections into underground storage have fallen by nearly half since the attacks, and restoring production could take weeks or even months.
Ukraine will likely boost imports from the EU (S&P estimates an additional 1.5 billion cubic meters), but that will only partly compensate for the losses. Most importantly, Russia, no longer constrained by the need to maintain transit flows, is likely to continue its campaign of winter strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including gas facilities.”
Bloomberg earlier reported that Ukraine will now be forced to purchase about 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of March, equivalent to roughly 20% of the country’s annual consumption. The cost of those imports is estimated at nearly €1.9 billion. Kyiv is also counting on international financial assistance to repair its power system, with damages currently estimated at €758 million.
According to a report by Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia launched 381 drones and 35 missiles in the Oct. 3 assault. About half of the missiles and 78 drones were not intercepted. The strikes caused severe damage to gas production facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. State energy company Naftogaz described the attack as the largest assault on the country’s gas production infrastructure since the start of the war.