Military aid from North Korea to Russia had China’s “nod of approval,” expert says

RU

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) released an official statement today confirming that North Korea has begun sending troops to Russia to prepare for participation in the war against Ukraine.

According to the NIS, the first group of 1,500 North Korean special forces soldiers arrived in Vladivostok between Oct. 8 and 13, transported aboard four landing ships and three frigates from Russia’s Pacific Fleet. Another transport operation is expected soon, with military cargo planes, such as the AN-124, already flying between Vladivostok and Pyongyang.

The NIS reports that these troops are currently stationed at military bases in the Russian cities of Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk. The soldiers were provided with Russian military uniforms, weapons, and identity documents bearing the names of residents from Yakutia and Buryatia, who “resemble North Koreans.” This tactic is reportedly being used by Russian commanders to disguise North Korea’s involvement in the conflict.

A Korean translator consulted by The Insider noted that one of the soldiers shouted in a North Korean dialect, “Follow the black line.” On Oct. 17, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), told The War Zone that an 11,000-strong North Korean force had been deployed to Russia to prepare for combat. South Korean news agency Yonhap later reported a similar story, citing the NIS — but it mentioned a contingent of 12,000 North Korean soldiers.

This development comes after Vladimir Putin’s recent submission of a bill to the State Duma to ratify the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and North Korea. The agreement, signed in June at a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during Putin's visit to Pyongyang, includes provisions requiring both countries to provide military assistance to each other “using all available means” in the event that one of them is attacked by a third party and enters a state of war. Both countries also committed to “resisting unilateral coercive measures” — a reference to Western sanctions in place against Russia and North Korea.

Fyodor Tertitskiy, a historian specializing in North Korea and a senior researcher at Kookmin University’s Institute for Korean Studies in Seoul, told The Insider that the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia is unprecedented. He also suggested that the partnership agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang may have received China’s approval:

“North Korea has never engaged in military interventions. At most, they sent pilots to North Vietnam or instructors to Zimbabwe and other African countries. A small number of officers were also sent to the Soviet Union, China, or East Germany with personal approval from the North Korean leadership. But the deployment of a North Korean division in another country has never happened before. This would [break] a precedent going back to 1948 — when North Korea was established.

The current alliance between Russia and North Korea essentially restores the Soviet Union's 1961 treaty, which was annulled in the 1990s and replaced with a good-neighborly relations agreement during Putin’s early years in power. This is definitely a new era in [the two countries’] bilateral relations. The most significant aspect is not so much the joint efforts against [Western] sanctions or the cultural and scientific activities, but the military alliance, which requires immediate and full military support in the event of an attack on one of the parties. According to the agreement, this applies to all Russian territories, including those annexed by Putin in 2022, meaning North Korea could be expected to fight for [the Ukrainian regions of] Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which are now constitutionally part of Russia.

I have no doubt that this agreement was approved by China. Putin has already visited China. Without direct Chinese consent, this would never have happened, as Putin cannot afford to act otherwise. It’s clear that China at least gave a nod of approval. China wants North Korea to stay afloat, especially given its deteriorating relations with the U.S. North Korea may be disliked, but it's considered 'their own.' It would be beneficial if the 2017 UN sanctions were violated, and even better if they were violated by both China and Russia. If anyone gets caught, Xi can always say that it was Putin, not him. Moreover, the operation will be paid for by the Russian budget, not China's.

China doesn’t want Putin to win outright, but they don’t want him to lose either. Their preference is for this to end with some kind of uncertain and fragile peace, restoring food security and ensuring nothing nuclear goes off. That’s why the idea of North Korea providing some support to Russia works well for China. It won’t be enough to secure a Russian victory, and that suits China just fine. This seems to be the plan the Chinese have in mind. In my opinion, this is likely how the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the International Department of the Communist Party’s Central Committee see the situation. In China, socialist countries are handled by the Party, while capitalist ones — including Russia — are dealt with by the Foreign Ministry.

For North Korea, which since the 1990s has feared being treated like Iraq, Syria, or Libya — especially after Saddam Hussein’s death — joining this alliance offers additional security guarantees. In return for military assistance, Russia is providing [Pyongyang with] oil and money, and North Korea is eager to obtain Russian aviation technology. However, for some reason, they weren’t given it right away.

There are only two people on the planet who can say 'no' to this: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The North Koreans are counting on expanding cooperation and eventually obtaining this technology. It’s their favorite 'salami tactic' — if they don't get everything at once, they keep slicing off pieces until, eventually, the other party realizes they’ve been devoured.”