Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: AFU counterattacks near Pokrovsk, Russia’s “psychological assault” in Kursk, battles for Kostyantynopil

In this week’s summary:

• Russian marines launched a “psychological assault” that involved carrying red flags across a minefield In Russia’s Kursk Region.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of successful counterattacks across the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient.
• Russian troops eliminated a Ukrainian “pocket” west of Kurakhove and began storming the Kostyantynopil-Ulakly defensive line.
• Initial talks began between the U.S. and Russia on potential paths to ending the war in Ukraine.
• A drone raid reduced oil transit from Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk by 30–40%.
• A leaked Russian Defense Ministry database revealed information on 166,000 wounded Russian soldiers.
• The delivery of Belgium’s first batch of F-16 fighter jets to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) was postponed until at least late 2025.
• New developments in Russia’s “frontline defense industry” saw the creation of an “ultimate enemy destryoed” and an engineering vehicle styled after the Warhammer 40,000 video game.

Situation at the front

Relative calm persisted in the Kursk Region this week — with some exceptions. A mechanized column from the 155th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade was destroyed after advancing across a minefield under red Soviet flags near the hamlet of Nikolskoye (geolocation — 1, 2). The incident triggered mixed reactions on Russian pro-war channels: some attempted to justify the losses, others criticized the Russian command, and a third group acknowledged the futility of such offensives in a battlefield dominated by drones. Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets labeled the assault on Nikolskoye a “psychological attack.”

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of the village of Sverdlikovo, later confirmed by analysts from the Ukrainian open source intelligence (OSINT) project DeepState. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's claims of a breakthrough into Ukraine’s Sumy Region remain unverified — the only confirmed attempt by Russian forces to cross the border was successfully repelled. Nonetheless, DeepState warned of Russian artillery and FPV drone strikes targeting Ukrainian logistics in the Sumy Region.

Ukrainian forces continued localized counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction. The Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group announced the liberation of Pishchane on the western flank. Ukrainian forces also pushed Russian troops back from the Konstiantynivka highway junction near Malynivka and cleared much of Lysivka village, located south of the town of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces failed to resume their offensive on both the western and eastern flanks of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration but did achieve localized gains, including the capture of the village of Srybne. Russian serviceman Sviatoslav Golikov reported that relentless Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics had led to food, water, and fuel shortages, along with heating problems among Russian troops in the Pokrovsk area. Ukrainian dominance in the low-altitude airspace in the area was also confirmed by Ukrainian analyst Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov.

In the Kurakhove operational area, Russian forces managed to eliminate a Ukrainian “pocket” west of Kurakhove. A massive assault began on Feb. 15, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat from Dachne and Zelenivka. Russian sources later published footage of troops raising their flag in Ulakly. According to a report by self-styled “war correspondent” Yuri Kotenok, Russian troops also established positions in the southern part of Kostyantynopil, west of Ulakly. A Ukrainian serviceman — the author of the channel Ofitser ✙ — reported that the fighting along the Kostyantynopil-Ulakly defensive line cost Russia at least 39 units of military equipment.

Russian forces also intensified their offensive north of the former Vremivka salient. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of Novosilka, while the pro-war channel Voin DV (lit. “Far Eastern Warrior”) released footage of Russian flags raised in Novoocheretuvate. DeepState noted active Russian assaults in this area, which resulted in heavy losses, including of armored vehicles.

During the initial U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh, both sides agreed to establish negotiation teams focused on Ukraine and to work to restore diplomatic staffing levels. Despite Donald Trump’s criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine and the U.S. appeared to make progress toward an agreement on mineral resource control. Zelensky also described his meeting in Kyiv with Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, by saying that their talk had “restored hope.”

Mutual strikes and sabotage

Throughout the week, the Ukrainian Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the downing of 500 drones, including Shahed UAVs and other unidentified types, out of a total of 1,021 launched against Ukrainian territory. An additional 409 drones were reported as “radar-lost.” The Ukrainian military also reported at least 17 missile launches by Russian forces, intercepting one Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missile.

Notable Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure included:

• Feb. 16: A drone attack on a thermal power plant in Mykolaiv left 46,000 people without electricity.
• Feb. 18: An 80-year-old man was killed in an artillery strike on Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region.
• Feb. 18: A mass drone attack on Odesa left at least 160,000 residents without heating or electricity.
• Feb. 19: Four glide bombs struck Kostiantynivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk Region, killing one person and injuring seven.
• Feb. 19: Two people were killed and five injured (1, 2) in artillery strikes in Kharkiv Region’s Kupiansk district and in the city of Kupiansk.
• Feb. 20: Four people were killed in airstrikes and artillery shelling of Kostiantynivka, while two others died after artillery strikes on Nikopol.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of 198 Ukrainian UAVs over Russia and Crimea. In response, Ukrainian forces struck several key targets:

• Feb. 14: An oil depot in Prokhorovka, Belgorod Region.
• Feb. 15: A refinery in Polotnyany Zavod in the Kaluga Region, and attacks on a chemical plant and oil refinery in Volgograd, injuring one civilian.
• Feb. 17: A strike on the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai reduced oil transit from Kazakhstan to Russia’s Novorossiysk by 30 to 40%, with repairs expected to take 1.5 to 2 months.
• Feb. 19: A drone attack on the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara Region brought its operations to a halt.
• Feb. 20: Another attack on the Novovelichkovskaya oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai.

According to volunteers from the open source (OSINT) intelligence project Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), at least 43 civilians were killed and 209 injured due to strikes on civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front line between Feb. 13 at 8:00 p.m. and Feb. 20 at 8:00 p.m.

Casualties

The BBC Russian Service, in collaboration with the independent exiled Russian media outlet Mediazona and a team of volunteers, has updated its count of Russian soldiers killed in the invasion of Ukraine to 95,026. The calculations, based on verified open-source data, have seen an additional 5,007 names added to the overall tally since Jan. 24, 2025. According to an unnamed NATO official, Russian losses in 2024 alone are estimated at a total of 530,000 killed and wounded, bringing overall casualties since the start of the war to 837,000.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed in an interview with NBC News that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the full-scale war, with tens of thousands more captured or missing. Previous estimates by The Economist placed Ukrainian losses at between 60,000 and 100,000.

An investigation by the Financial Times identified a Russian soldier allegedly involved in the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war. According to the report, Oleg Yakovlev, a native of Uralsk, Kazakhstan, along with fellow servicemen from Russia’s 30th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, executed six Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered. Yakovlev denied any involvement while claiming that the Russian soldier seen in the execution video “did not kill those men without reason.”

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has released its analysis of a database from the Main Military Medical Directorate of Russia’s Ministry of Defense containing records on 166,000 patients who passed through military hospitals across Russia and Crimea from January 2022 to mid-June 2024.

The journalists were able to verify the authenticity of the data by randomly selecting individuals from the database and using social media profiles to confirm their participation in combat.

The investigation led to several key conclusions:

• The number of severely wounded soldiers remained consistent regardless of developments on the front lines, suggesting that Russia had yet to resolve evacuation issues from the battlefield during this period.
• The database also shows signs of deliberate misclassification of injury severity, with some soldiers who had undergone amputations being categorized as lightly wounded.
• Winter months saw not only an increase in frostbite cases but also in psychological disorders and burns, the latter linked to improperly constructed stoves in military dugouts.
• The average age of wounded soldiers steadily increased over time, reflecting the replacement of pre-war contract soldiers with mobilized recruits, prisoners, and newly enlisted contract troops. Between February 2022 and mid-June 2024, the average age of the wounded rose from 28 to 36 years old.

Weapons and military vehicles

This week, several military aid packages for Ukraine were announced:

• European Union countries are preparing a military assistance package worth at least €6 billion, which could increase to €10 billion. The package is expected to include 1.5 million artillery shells, along with air defense systems and other equipment.
• 1.6 million artillery shells were delivered to Ukraine under the so-called “Czech initiative,” ensuring the country's needs are covered until at least April.
• The German government supplied Ukraine with an additional 56 MRAP vehicles, four Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers, 50,000 artillery shells, as well as ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles and missiles for the IRIS-T SLM and IRIS-T SLS air defense systems.
• The AFU have also begun using M712 Copperhead laser-guided artillery shells, likely directed with the help of Ukrainian drones.
• The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense announced the delivery of trucks and thermal imaging sights to Ukraine worth $80 million.

However, the delivery of the first batch of Belgian F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine has been postponed until at least the end of 2025 due to delays in receiving American F-35s, which are intended to replace the F-16s in Belgium’s fleet.

On the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers displayed a homemade multiple-launch rocket system mounted on a car. In response, Russian troops presented several improvised military innovations:

• What they described as the “ultimate enemy destroyer” — a BMP-2 automatic cannon mounted on a D-44 artillery carriage.
• A modified BTR-82A equipped with a homemade mine plow, an anti-drone grill, and a storage box for airborne troops;
• An IMR tracked engineering vehicle fitted with a giant grill styled after the orc-themed aesthetic from the Warhammer 40,000 video game, humorously dubbed the “WAAAGH” configuration.
• A giant quad bike.
• A two-story BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle with an additional troop cabin mounted atop the hull.
• And a man-portable rocket launcher for unguided aviation rockets, which appears to pose as much danger to the operator as to the intended target.